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There will be more continuity than change in US policy, whoever is President, predicts Sir Christopher Meyer.
Those expecting the departure of George Bush to bring about a dramatic shift in American foreign policy after Bush are heading for disappointment, Sir Christopher Meyer, former British Ambassador to Washington told the Fabian 'Change the World' conference.
Saturday, 19th January
Meyer said he stuck to a bet he had made some time ago that Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney would be the General Election candidates. 'But even if Barack Obama – or even Mike Huckabee - God help us - wins, there will be more continuity than change in American foreign policy' said Meyer, speaking in the panel debate on 'the World after Bush'.
Other panellists argued that the strong emphasis on 'change' in the US race could present important opportunities for increased engagement with the next US President, not least because of a growing awareness that even American power was limited when acting alone, but that excessive expectations of a transformation in relations with the US would end in disappointment.
The lesson of the limits on even the US acting alone had, after Iraq, already been evident in a 'chastened' and 'depleted' Bush second term,
said Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council for Foreign Relations.
'Our dirty little secret we have is that the transatlantic relationship is probably the best it has been for many years', said Mark Leonard,
Catherine Mayer of Time Magazine said that 'whoever gets in, don't expect change overnight'. There was a growing sense among US opinion formers of the importance of getting the world to engage with America, she said, noting as one example a decline in the number of students taking American studies in the UK.
Mayer suggested that European support for Hillary Clinton was partly nostalgic, and partly based on a rose-tinted view of Bill Clinton's foreign policy. Obama could represent a more significant break.
'There will be gradual change, but no revolution' said Karsten Voigt, who anticipated there would be considerably more support in the next US administration for constructive engagement on climate change at a crucial time in the negotiations of a post-Kyoto deal.
'There will always be the complaint that America is not listening enough.
The US has its own political culture. In Europe, we are crossing boundaries, materially and psychologically, while America is rediscovering boundaries, said Karsten Voigt.
'We need to accept that we have different political cultures and sometimes interests – but important shared values too', he said.
Panellists suggested that Europe's challenge was to develop its own, distinctive, voice on foreign policy – instead of adopting a 'for or against' attitude towards the US stance.
Mark Leonard said that "an obsession with the United States is infantalising of the European Union. We should have developed our own solution rather than just being for or against the United States. We must not let a running commentary on American foreign policy become a substiture for having our own foreign policy", said Leonard.
David Lammy, chairing the panel, called a straw poll on who the audience would like to see as the next US President, with overwhelming support for the Democrats fairly evenly divided between those who wanted to see Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton win.
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