Some people look at Labour’s by-election record and say the party is in as much trouble as the doomed Tories in the mid-Nineties. Not so, says YouGov's Peter Kellner in a new essay in the upcoming Fabian Review. He argues that geography is often ignored factor. 

Also inside: Fiona Mactaggart on fair taxes, David Lammy on engaging voters and the Fabian interview with James Purnell. 

In the next Fabian Review , Peter Kellner writes: "It’s not much fun these days being a Labour-supporting pollster. Sometimes I feel I am being blamed personally for producing YouGov figures that show the Tories miles ahead. So let me try and redress things by pointing out, in best mixed-metaphor mode, some fragments of silver lining at the end of the tunnel. Here are six reasons why Labour could (note that I say ‘could’ – I’m not foolhardy enough to say ‘will’) win the next general election.

He argues; "Britain’s political geography is tilted strongly Labour’s way. On conventional assumptions of a uniform swing, Labour can win up to two million fewer votes than the Conservatives and still end up with more MPs. This means that if the two parties win the same number of votes, Labour will retain, or come very close to, an overall majority in the Commons, and have up to 80 more MPs than the Tories. For the Tories to draw level in the number of seats, they will need a lead of 6 per cent in the popular vote. For David Cameron to secure an overall majority, his party needs a lead of at least 10 per cent."