Learning Lessons: After the storm

This is the first part of our ‘Learning Lessons’ series, which provides a space for candidates across England, Scotland and Wales to share what they heard on the doorstep and where they believe Labour should go next.

Last week’s elections were little short of a disaster for the Labour party. In England, Labour lost dozens of councils and nearly 1,500 councillors. In Scotland, we failed to prevent a third decade of SNP government. And in Wales – one of Labour’s historic heartlands – we lost our first national election in a century, falling into a distant third. Most governments struggle in local elections. But these were far more than mid-term blues.

Inevitably, much of the focus in the aftermath has been on the prime minister’s leadership. Keir Starmer was right to take responsibility for the results yesterday. Whether or not he stays or goes is a matter for MPs.

The Fabian Society is about ideas, not about individuals. So we wanted to start a discussion about how we can learn the lessons from last week, and about where we go from here. Because whoever is leading the party in the coming months, Labour clearly needs to rethink its policy agenda and rebuild its electoral coalition.

Over the coming weeks, our Learning Lessons series will provide a platform for candidates who stood across England, Scotland and Wales, allowing them to share what they heard on the doorstep, and where they think Labour must go next.

I wanted to kick things off with my views.

First, in order to understand where we go from here, we must understand exactly why we lost.

The big winner of Thursday’s elections was Reform. They gained over 1,400 council seats, with most won from Labour. However, it would be a mistake to assume that Reform’s advances were solely driven by Labour switchers. As early analysis by Sir John Curtice found, the biggest falls in Labour’s vote were in wards which saw above average Green performance, rather than strong Reform performance. So in many areas, Labour lost seats to Reform, in large part because they lost votes to the Greens.

This tallies with polling evidence which shows that while 10 per cent of 2024 Labour voters now support Reform, twice as many – 20 per cent – now support the Greens. A further 15 per cent of 2024 Labour voters now back the Lib Dems, SNP or Plaid. Not only are these voters more numerous, but they are also more likely to consider coming back to Labour.

This is perhaps an inevitable consequence of Labour’s political strategy. Both before the election and since, the leadership has had a laser-like focus on ‘hero voters’. These tended to be economically insecure, socially conservative, and concentrated in the Red Wall. Many had previously been Labour, before voting for Brexit and then for Boris Johnson in 2019. By contrast, less attention has been given to retaining progressive voters. To paraphrase Peter Mandelson, it was assumed these voters had ‘nowhere else to go’.

Defenders of this strategy argue that it helped deliver a historic majority in 2024. But it is increasingly clear that this landslide owed more to the split on the right, and the Conservatives sitting on their hands, than to large-scale switching to Labour. The majority it delivered wad broad, but shallow. And things have rapidly come apart, with the rise of the Greens in England and Plaid in Wales fracturing our coalition.

If Labour is to rebuild a winning coalition, we need both to regain the support of progressive voters who have deserted us, and to win back working-class voters. This can be done – but only with a bold offer and clear leadership.

First, Labour should both deepen our relationship with Europe in the short term and consider committing to rejoining at the next election.

Brexit has been a disaster for our country. It has left us poorer, weaker and more isolated. Labour should look to build what Liam Byrne has called an economic and security union with our European neighbours, with much closer alignment on key sectors, stronger partnership on defence, and freedom of movement for young people. Looking to the next parliament, Labour should explore committing to rejoining the EU.

A closer relationship with Europe could be a powerful tool to drive our stagnant growth and bolster our security in uncertain times. And the prospect of rejoining could win back the progressive voters we have lost: more than four in five Green voters support rejoining the EU.

Some Labour MPs have warned that a closer relationship with Europe would accelerate the losses to Reform. But support for rejoining the EU is broad. A majority of voters in the North of England (53 per cent) back rejoining the EU, with support just 2 percentage points lower than across the UK as a whole. And while there is a difference by class, working class voters are evenly split on rejoining the EU.

Second, Labour should get serious about electoral reform. In an era of multi-party politics, our electoral system is no longer defensible. One of the arguments in favour of first past the post was that it helps to keep the extremes at bay. But with the party system fragmenting, first past the post could enable Reform to win a majority on little more than a quarter of the vote.

Again, this would be popular with disenchanted progressive voters. Labour voters back a more proportional system by over two to one, and electoral reform is even more popular with Lib Dem and Green voters. Labour should reach out to other parties on electoral reform, and establish a citizens’ assembly to explore a fairer system that better suits our modern politics.

While we must tempt back disenchanted progressives, we must also set out a bold and distinctively Labour offer which resonates in the working-class communities across the country which are also losing faith in the party.

This must start with a vision for good work which rebalances power in the labour market and creates good jobs in every community across the UK.

The Employment Rights Act has been one of the most transformative and popular measures in the first two years of this government. Labour should double down on this agenda, delivering a bold ‘fair pay agreement’ for social care which ensures care workers receive at least the real Living Wage. Labour should also establish a fair pay agreement for childcare, another crucial part of the foundational economy, where workers deliver vital support but are both undervalued and underpaid. This could transform pay and conditions for around 2.5 million workers, the vast majority of whom are low-paid women.

The government should move beyond incrementalism and deliver bold reform to the skills system. This should involve real investment in further education and a massive expansion of apprenticeships, with funding from the growth and skills levy focused on young people and those without degree level qualifications.

Labour should commit to decent and secure homes for all. The government has already made great strides here, including with planning reform and massive investment in social housing. But we must go further. Labour should be bolder on planning reform to get Britain building again (some ideas from the Fabian Housing Centre to follow shortly). We must also build on the Renter’s Rights Act, further reforming the private rented sector to both cut costs and give tenants security. We should set out a new offer to support first time buyers, too.

Finally, Labour should help local areas to take back control by putting rocket-boosters under devolution.

The Devolution Act has made some progress here, and the Pride in Place scheme is very welcome. But even after these measures, England will remain one of the most centralised countries among advanced economies. We risk remaining stuck in a model of local government which merely distributes scarce resources rather than one which genuinely empowers local areas to unleash their potential. The next phase of devolution must be more bold and less cautious. We need to see the Treasury loosen its grip, and local areas given the power to raise revenue, borrow, and invest in local growth, alongside beefed up local accountability.

These results are by no means a death knell for Labour. Reform can be beaten. They are deeply polarising, with a leader loved by some but detested by many.  They are both untested and unfit for office. But the elections must be a wake-up call. Labour must rebuild its coalition, by both winning back disenchanted progressives and regaining working class voters.

These are just my views, and not those of the Fabian Society. After all, we exist to support debate and discussion on the left, in order to build a more equal economy and society. If you want to share your views, please do get in touch. And if you’re not already a member, please join us, and help shape the future of the left.