Learning Lessons: The Scotland Question

This is the sixth part of our ‘Learning Lessons’ series, which provides a space for candidates across England, Scotland and Wales to share what they heard on the doorstep and where they believe Labour should go next

Scottish Labour went into this Holyrood election hoping it could repeat its performance at the general election of 2024, when, to the surprise of most commentators, they won 37 seats in Scotland. Yet after almost 20 years of SNP government, with the nationalists tired, divided and vulnerable, Labour has still failed to make a breakthrough.

Having spent the last eight months campaigning as a Labour candidate in a target seat which we were unable to win, the election exposed difficult political realities for Scottish Labour.

The first was the continued relevance of the constitutional question. The SNP vote fell substantially due to dissatisfaction with the SNP’s record in government – the NHS, ferries, schools, roads and local services. But a core of those voted SNP because they believe in independence. Some said that if independence were achieved, they would vote Labour.

Another issue repeatedly raised on the doorstep was dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer’s government. Often, this was expressed as a personal criticism of the prime minister himself.  Yet, opinions were more nuanced when challenged, accepting his competence in handling the Iran crisis or the reset with the EU, and that the economy now appeared more stable. Competence alone does not always generate political enthusiasm. Many voters simply do not yet feel materially better off, and that outweighs arguments about stability or improved international standing.

The election also exposed how poorly understood Scotland’s electoral system remains – even after 25 years. I spoke to many voters, including first-time voters, who had no or little understanding of how the electoral system works or what powers the Scottish parliament has. Voters complained, for instance, about higher income tax, blaming Westminster rather than Holyrood, despite tax rates being devolved.

Often, tactical voting messaging came too late. Scotland in Union promoted Labour as the strongest anti-SNP option in some constituencies, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats increasingly encouraged voters to back Labour on the constituency ballot and support them on the regional list.

But many voters remained confused, even on polling day. Some still believed the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were claiming that they could beat the SNP locally.

In my seat (Edinburgh South Western), the SNP vote was down by almost 10 per cent and Labour up by 6 per cent. But in a multi-party environment, a reduced SNP vote was enough to win.

Scottish Labour, however, faces a delicate balancing act. Labour cannot afford to appear in any way aligned with the Conservatives or Reform in defence of the Union. It is also true that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats might have acted more decisively in seats where they could not win.

So where does Scottish Labour go from here?

First, it is clear that dissatisfaction with the SNP does not automatically benefit Labour. Political disillusionment fed Reform’s vote across the UK on 7 May. This helped return 17 Reform MSPs to Holyrood and ate away at Labour’s vote share in areas once considered Labour strongholds. In areas such as Edinburgh South Western where Reform performed best, our share of the vote dropped to below 15 per cent.

Voters need a positive reason to support Labour that goes beyond opposition to nationalism. Scottish Labour needs confident Scottish voices speaking directly to Scottish priorities and concerns. Arguably, we should have been bolder and louder in our policy offer, rather than essentially offering to do things better than the SNP.

Second, it may be that consideration should have been given at some point to pivoting to a regional list strategy. To some extent, this election’s winners were traditionally smaller parties like the Greens and Lib Dems who executed well targeted constituency and regional campaigns, returning record numbers of MSPs. Strong constituency campaigns were run in carefully selected target seats, and a positive argument was made to gain voters’ regional list votes.

In Edinburgh and Lothians East, had our constituency vote transferred largely (although not necessarily wholly) to the regional list, we would have had another MSP elected, making us the second largest party in Holyrood (instead of equal with Reform). There is a risk that that would have lost Labour some tactical Lib Dem or Conservative constituency votes, but at least consideration should have been given to whether this trade-off was worth it.

More broadly, Labour must rethink how candidates are supported. The demands of campaigning increasingly favour the independently wealthy, retirees, or those able to suspend their careers entirely for months at a time. This is not healthy for democracy. Politics should not become inaccessible to people with demanding professional lives or family responsibilities.

The experience of modern campaigning itself has become extraordinarily demanding, bordering at times on unsustainable. Candidates are now expected to spend six or eight hours a day on the doors while as also being social media content creators, fundraisers, organisers and commentators. Alongside that comes a flood of lobbying emails on dozens of policy topics, all requiring careful responses, not to mention coping with toxic comments on social media. I was fortunate to have a committed group of activists prepared to turn out day in, day out for me, but not all candidates were as fortunate.

This election demonstrated that dissatisfaction with opponents is not enough to secure lasting support. Scottish Labour still has a path back to power, but recovery will require far more than simply waiting for the SNP to decline. For UK Labour, the message seems to be that competence in economic management is not enough: until people’s hope and optimism is restored, voters will not feel they have seen the change that was promised in July 2024.

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