Tomorrow’s world
The outlook for the climate is bleak – but green technology has already helped us to avoid the worst-case scenarios, writes Emily Shuckburgh
Climate change is a story of both despair and hope. It is a story of risk, but also of opportunity.
In recent years we have watched in horror as wildfires devastated California, Australia and southern Europe. This summer, as extreme heat and prolonged drought created tinderbox conditions across the country, fires arrived on our doorstep. They swept through parts of Britain that were once thought too wet, too green and too temperate to burn.
A major blaze at a Cambridgeshire nature reserve is expected to take weeks to extinguish. In Suffolk, wildfire destroyed more than 150 hectares of land that is home to some of the UK’s rarest species and came within a few miles of Sizewell B nuclear power station. In the Cairngorms, fire tore across moorland and forestry, forcing evacuations and requiring hundreds of firefighters. From the start of 2026 to the end of August, almost 25,000 hectares of the UK burned.
This summer’s series of heatwaves brought inevitable comparisons to the famous summer of 1976. But there is a crucial difference. In 1976, extreme heat was an exceptional anomaly. Today it is becoming a recurring drumbeat. Since 2000, the UK has experienced nine years with temperatures above 35°C, including the unprecedented 40.3°C recorded in 2022. This summer saw extended periods with no rainfall – the longest dry spell, recorded in Surrey, was 62 days – and by the end of August, much of the country resembled a dustbowl.
The consequences extend far beyond scorched landscapes. Heat is a major public health threat. The UK Health Security Agency reported nearly 2,900 heat-associated deaths during the heatwaves of May and June alone. Extreme temperatures increase the risk of heart attacks and other health emergencies, placing enormous strain on medical services. During June’s heatwave, the London Ambulance Service recorded its busiest day in its history.
For me, these statistics became painfully personal. At the height of the June heatwave, my father suffered a sudden, fatal stroke. Climate change is often discussed in terms of averages, projections and probabilities, but it is ultimately experienced through its consequences for people, families and communities.
The economic costs are significant, too. Lost productivity, pressure on public services, business disruption and infrastructure damage all carry a financial price. London alone is estimated to have lost around £1.5bn during the heatwaves of 2022.
Climate change is no longer a future threat. The UK has warmed by around 0.25°C per decade since the 1980s. The last four years are all in the top five warmest years in the UK since 1884. Our weather is becoming more extreme – hot days and hot nights that were once rare are increasingly commonplace; we are now over 20 times more likely to experience 40°C than we were in the 1960s; winters are getting wetter; and observations suggest there has been an increase in very wet days across the UK in recent decades. Sea level rise around the UK is also accelerating, increasing the potential flood risk from storm surges.
Climate change is therefore a defining challenge to Britain’s security, prosperity and social resilience. Its effects can already be seen in overheated homes, flooded communities and growing pressure on food, water and infrastructure systems. By the middle of this century, over 90 per cent of existing homes could be vulnerable to dangerous overheating, peak river flows could rise by as much as 45 per cent, increasing the frequency and severity of flooding, and summer water shortfalls could exceed 5bn litres a day. As climate pressures interact with geopolitical tensions, instability abroad may increasingly affect Britain at home.
Most troubling is the non-linear nature of these risks. The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming is profound. The difference between 2°C and 3°C could be transformational, bringing much higher economic costs, expensive and increasingly unachievable adaptation requirements, and an enhanced risk of passing catastrophic climate tipping points. Climate policy is therefore fundamental to protecting the conditions on which a prosperous, secure and fair society depends.
Yet climate change remains unusual among the many challenges confronting modern societies because it is simultaneously human-caused, scientifically understood and ultimately solvable. The science is clear: stabilising the climate requires reaching net zero emissions. Yet global emissions remain close to record highs and the remaining carbon budget consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C is rapidly shrinking. Delays to action are translating directly to ever more devastating climate impacts.
The UK constitutes a small percentage of global emissions, so we cannot solve this alone. To secure our future we must work with others. That means leading the global conversation, but it also means exporting our cleantech innovations and seizing market opportunities across the green economy.
There are genuine grounds for optimism. Humanity has already avoided some of the most alarming emissions trajectories that once appeared plausible, in large part thanks to technological progress. The growth of solar power, wind energy, batteries and electric vehicles has repeatedly exceeded expectations. Solar costs have fallen by around 90 per cent in little more than a decade and could fall further still. Battery prices have followed a similar trajectory. Across much of the world, renewable electricity is now the cheapest source of new power generation.
The net zero transition is an opportunity to create jobs, attract investment, build competitive advantage and create a secure future for our children and grandchildren. The emerging global contest is over who will lead the industries of the future, from batteries and advanced manufacturing to artificial intelligence-enabled energy systems. The scale of the activity in countries like China and India is phenomenal, and Britain should be part of the global sprint to electrification.
The cleantech innovation ecosystem in the UK is vibrant and holds great promise, spanning next-generation solar, ultrafast charging batteries, novel heat and cooling technologies, zero-carbon cement, sustainable aviation fuel, industrialised photosynthesis, climate-resilient crops and much more. The UK also has the potential to become the world’s leading centre for climate finance, supporting clean technologies and shaping the standards, markets and financial innovations that will underpin the green economy globally.
Technological transitions rarely proceed gradually. They often appear impossible until suddenly they become inevitable. The spread of electricity, the arrival of the motor car and the rise of the internet all transformed society far faster than most contemporaries imagined. Climate technologies are beginning to display similar dynamics.
Investment stimulates innovation; innovation reduces costs; lower costs accelerate adoption; wider deployment attracts more capital and further innovation; positive feedback loops emerge.
That shift helps explain why warming scenarios above 4°C now appear less likely than they once did. The world has not solved climate change, but it has demonstrated that technological transformation can happen remarkably quickly.
Yet challenges remain. The race is on to deploy existing technologies and to develop and scale new ones such as carbon removals and long-duration energy storage. Simultaneously, a greater emphasis is needed on implementing adaptation measures, and public support needs to be maintained by ensuring the benefits of the transition are widely shared. Families need to see lower bills, warmer homes, cleaner air and more secure jobs, not simply distant promises of future gains. Communities must be integral to shaping and delivering solutions.
There is also a deeper governance challenge. Democracies are geared to address urgent threats, but find it harder to sustain a response to slower-moving risks. Political and spending cycles are typically measured in years, but climate change unfolds over decades and requires a long-term commitment to action.
A climate-secure future is technically possible. The technologies exist, the economics are shifting and the momentum is building. Yet it is not clear whether our politics, institutions and collective imagination can muster to minimise the risks and maximise the opportunities.
The wildfires that ravaged parts of the country this summer were something to despair, but from the embers, we can draw hope. Together we can build a better, cleaner future that protects the people and places we love. In doing so, Britain can show the world what true progress looks like.
