Learning Lessons: After the storm
The local elections were a near disaster. To rebuild its coalition, Labour must reach out to both progressive and working-class voters, argues Joe Dromey
This is the first part of our ‘Learning Lessons’ series, which provides a space for candidates across England, Scotland and Wales to share what they heard on the doorstep and where they believe Labour should go next.
Learning lessons
Last week’s elections were little short of a disaster for the Labour Party. In England, Labour lost dozens of councils, and nearly 1,500 councillors. In Scotland, we failed to prevent a third decade of SNP government. And in Wales – one of Labour’s historic heartlands – we lost our first national election in a century, falling into a distant third. Most governments struggle in local and devolved elections. But these were far more than mid-term blues.
Inevitably, much of the focus in the aftermath has been on the prime minister’s leadership. Keir Starmer was right to take responsibility for the results yesterday. Whether or not he remains is a matter for MPs.
The Fabian Society is about ideas, not about individuals. So we’re starting a discussion about the lessons from last week, and where we go from here. Because whoever is leading the party in the coming months, Labour clearly needs to rethink its policy agenda, and rebuild its electoral coalition.
Over the coming days and weeks, our Learning Lessons series will platform candidates who stood across England, Scotland and Wales. We will provide a space for them to share what they heard on the doorstep, and where they think Labour must go next.
I wanted to kick things off with my views.
First, in order to work out where we go from here, we must understand exactly why we lost.
In recent years, Labour’s political strategy focused on ‘hero voters’, who had previously supported Labour, before backing Brexit and then for Boris Johnson in 2019. These voters tended to be economically insecure, socially conservative, and concentrated in the ‘Red Wall’. Less attention was given to retaining other parts of Labour’s coalition.
Defenders of this strategy argue that prioritising ‘switchers’ in specific areas under first-past-the-post helped deliver a historic landslide in 2024. But it is increasingly clear that this victory owed more to the split on the right, rather than to large-scale switching to Labour. The majority it delivered wad broad, but it has proven to be both shallow and fragile.
The big winner of Thursday’s elections was Reform. They gained over 1,400 council seats, with most won from Labour. However, it would be a mistake to assume that Reform’s advances were solely driven by Labour switchers. As early analysis by Sir John Curtice found, the biggest falls in Labour’s vote were in wards which saw above average Green performance, rather than strong Reform performance. So in many areas, Labour lost seats to Reform, in large part because they lost votes to the Greens.
This tallies with polling evidence which shows that while 10 per cent of 2024 Labour voters now support Reform, twice as many – 20 per cent – now support the Greens. A further 15 per cent of 2024 Labour voters now back the Lib Dems, SNP or Plaid. Not only are these voters more numerous, but they are also more likely to consider coming back to Labour.
If Labour is to re-build a winning coalition, we need both to regain the support of progressive voters who have deserted us, whilst winning back some of the socially conservative voters we have lost. This can be done, with a bold offer and clear leadership.
First, Labour’s offer must start with a vision for good work, which rebalances power in the labour market, and creates good jobs in every community across the UK.
The Employment Rights Act has been one of the most transformative and popular measures in the first two years of this government. Labour should double-down on this agenda, delivering a bold ‘fair pay agreement’ both in social care, and in childcare. This could transform pay and conditions for around 2.5 million workers in the foundational economy, the vast majority of whom are low paid women.
Labour should also seek to be the natural party of the self-employed, many of whom are precarious and low paid – rolling out sick pay and improving parental leave for example. The government should move beyond incrementalism, and deliver bold reform to the skills system. This should involve real investment in further education, and a massive expansion of apprenticeships, with funding from the growth and skills levy focused on young people and those without degree level qualifications.
Second, Labour should commit to decent and secure homes for all. The government has already made great strides here, including with planning reform, renters rights and massive investment in social housing. But we must now go further.
Labour should be bolder on planning reform to get Britain building again (some ideas from the Fabian Housing Centre to follow shortly). We must also build on the Renter’s Rights Act by further reforming the private rented sector, to both control costs and give tenants security. We should set out a new offer to support first time buyers too.
Third, Labour should help local areas to take back control by putting rocket-boosters under devolution.
The Devolution and Community Empowerment Act is a big step forward. But even after these measures, England will remain one of the most centralised countries among advanced economies. We risk remaining stuck in a model of local government which merely distributes scarce resources, rather than one which genuinely empowers local areas to unleash their potential. The next phase of devolution must be more bold and less cautious. We need to see the Treasury loosen its grip, and local areas given the power to raise revenue, borrow, and invest in local growth, alongside beefed up local accountability.
Alongside this, we need a bold offer to re-gain the voters who have deserted us to progressive parties.
Labour must go much further in deepening our relationship with Europe. Brexit has been a disaster for our country. It has left us poorer, weaker and more isolated. Labour should look to build what Liam Byrne has called an economic and security union with our European neighbours, with much closer alignment on key sectors and supply chains, stronger partnership on defence, and freedom of movement for young people. Looking to the next Parliament, Labour should explore committing to rejoining the EU.
A closer relationship with Europe could be a powerful tool to drive our stagnant growth and bolster our security in uncertain geopolitical times.
And a big offer on the EU could win back the progressive voters we’ve lost. More than one in five (84 per cent) of Green voters support rejoining the EU. Some Labour MPs have warned that a closer relationship with Europe would accelerate the losses to Reform. But there is very widespread support for a closer relationship whilst staying out of the customs union and single market. Voters in the north and working class voters both back this by majority of nearly three to one.
Finally, Labour should get serious about electoral reform. In an era of multi-party politics, our electoral system is neither workable nor defensible. One of the arguments in favour of first past the post was that it helps to keep the extremes at bay. But with the party system fragmenting, first past the post could enable Reform to win a majority on little more than a quarter of the vote.
Again, this would be popular with disenchanted progressive voters. Labour voters back a more proportional system by over two to one, and electoral reform is even more popular with Lib Dem and Green voters. Labour should reach out to other parties on electoral reform, and establish a citizens assembly to explore a fairer system that better suits our modern politics.
These are just my views, and not those of the Fabian Society. We exist to support debate and discussion on the left, rather than to campaign for a specific agenda. If you want to share your views on where Labour goes from here, please do get in touch. And if you’re not already a member, please join the Fabians, and help shape the future of the left.
These results are by no means a death knell for Labour. Reform can be beaten. They are deeply polarising, with a leader loved by some, but detested by many. They are both untested and unfit for office. But the elections must be a wake-up call. Labour must rebuild its coalition, by both winning back disenchanted progressives and regaining working class voters.
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