Learning Lessons: Battle Cry

This is the ninth part of our ‘Learning Lessons’ series, which provides a space for candidates across England, Scotland and Wales to share what they heard on the doorstep and where they believe Labour should go next

The results on 8 May were devastating for Scottish Labour – even more so because they came after a string of successes for the party: the byelection win in Rutherglen, the election of 38 MPs in the general election, and then another byelection win in Hamilton. 

These wins had given us a confidence in our data and our ground game even when the polls were telling us we were behind. Ultimately, though, this time the polls were right, and Scottish Labour fell well short across the country. Our vote share from the general election reduced from 35 per cent to 19 per cent. One bright spot on a grim day was our constituency win in Na h-Eileanan an Iar, increasing the constituencies held from two to three. 

This election represents the lowest total seat count for Scottish Labour since the establishment of the devolved parliament in 1999 – and the sixth consecutive Holyrood election in which our seat share has decreased. 

Independence had slipped down the charts in terms of voters’ concerns. It was rarely mentioned on the doorsteps, but a mood of national decline prevailed with trust in politics at an all-time low. The five key issues for voters in Scotland were the cost of living; health, social care and the NHS; immigration; the economy; and housing. 

Despite projecting confidence, Scottish Labour had anticipated that the 2026 Scottish election would be challenging. There was a longstanding concern that the UK Labour government would become unpopular just in time for the Scottish parliament election, and so it proved. The visceral dislike of Keir Starmer and the Westminster Labour government was overwhelming. We had lost the right to be heard. In short, Scottish Labour’s message was drowned out by the national picture and events in Westminster. This is not the first time Scotland has punished Scottish parties for the actions of their Westminster counterparts. The Scottish Conservatives are polling at historic lows, and the Liberal Democrats are only now recovering from coalition with the Conservatives.  

A fragmented media environment also made it difficult to cut through. Most people now consume political information through TikTok and Facebook. In the “conflict economy” of social media, Scottish Labour lost out to the polarised forces of Reform UK and the nationalists. 

Our conversations on the doorstep became much longer because we struggled to get voters to focus on Scotland and local issues. In Hamilton, we effectively door knocked ourselves out of the national quagmire, but doing that across the Central Belt proved too labour intensive. 

There has already been criticism of the strategy of pursuing the 38 seats won in the general election and focussing purely on winning constituencies. In contrast, smaller parties, such as the Greens and Lib Dems, performed well by focusing on list votes alongside a small number of carefully targeted constituencies. Undoubtedly a better list strategy and a narrowing of target seats could have resulted in us winning more seats, but we are the party of government in the UK, the majority of Scottish Westminster seats are held by Labour, and if we had run a more modest campaign we would have been criticised for not matching that ambition. The Labour party has always strived to win power so we can change lives – we are not there to exist on the fringes winning concessions here and there.  

The truth is that while there are many lessons to be learned in terms of capacity, candidate selection and where we put our resources, in the face of such a large drop in vote share, this would have resulted in very marginal differences if any at all.  

The lesson for all politicians is that the national mood is volatile, voters can swing back and forth between parties in a short space of time, large swings are the norm and there are no safe seats.  

The SNP and John Swinney’s core pitch in this election was a majority would allow him to force a commitment from the UK government on another referendum and independence would allow Scotland a “fresh start,” shielding Scotland from the impacts of Brexit and supposed Westminster austerity. 

Swinney focused heavily on making daily life more affordable by easing the financial pressure on family budgets, offering a price cap on a selected basket of goods in shops and arguing that Scotland should utilise its vast renewable energy resources to lower household utility bills and build local prosperity rather than seeing that wealth flow to the British Treasury. While Scottish Labour suffered its worst defeat since devolution, the SNP also fell shy of their objective to secure a majority. With the Greens alongside them, the pro-independence block is the largest in parliament, but the top line figures show 1.3m votes cast for the pro-union parties against circa 900,000 for pro-independence parties. Despite remaining the largest party in Holyrood by a wide margin, they fell 7 seats short of the 65 needed for an outright governing majority the SNP suffered a major decline in popularity, with its vote share dropping by 9.5 percentage points on the constituency ballot and 13.2 percentage points on the regional list ballot compared to 2021.  

This represents the party’s lowest constituency vote share since they first took power in 2007, yet they still won. Despite losing nearly a tenth their vote the SNP was saved by a highly fragmented opposition. The pro-union vote split almost equally between Labour (19.2%) and a surging Reform UK (15.8%), and with the Greens only standing in key constituencies the SNP was still able to comfortably finish first past the post in 57 constituencies. The Green vote in constituencies where they were not standing a candidate went overwhelmingly to the SNP. 

While independence was not a key issue of the doorstep, a party’s position on constitutional matters is often a gatekeeping question that determines whether  voters will hear it out. The Scottish Fabians had long argued that for Scottish Labour to win power again, it needed to reclaim a confident, pro-UK, pro-devolution, pro-Scotland stance. Scottish Labour’s sometimes uncomfortable relationship with devolution – despite being its architects – has allowed the SNP to dominate Scottish politics for decades. Scottish MPs are part of the devolution generation, growing up with the Scottish parliament, and in tone and imagery, Scottish Labour is now more confident of its place in the UK and its Scottish identity. Consequently, before May, Scottish Labour had proved that it can win elections again. 

The immediate challenge is to diminish the threat of Reform, but just as in England, we are fighting on two fronts, losing votes to both Reform and the Greens. While we must win back older, socially conservative voters, then, we must have an offer to progressive voters.  

Scottish Labour must win the argument that we are the primary opposition to the SNP. We must then hold the SNP to account for their many failings but also work constructively to deliver for Scotland. There is a real risk that this parliament does not deliver on the areas that the vast majority of Scots care about: the NHS, schools, and safer communities. 

The problems the UK faces will not be solved by the people who broke it. Labour must start to rebuild our relationship with Europe.  Brexit has been a disaster, leaving us poorer, weaker, and more isolated, especially with an unreliable ally in the US president. Labour should push for a closer alignment on key sectors and supply chains, stronger partnership on defence, and freedom of movement for young people. 

Amid widespread public distrust in politics and growing fears that Scotland is heading in the wrong direction – recent polling by the Diffley partnership shows 56 per cent of people think Scotland is heading in the wrong direction – the need to tackle deep-seated issues in Scottish society remain as urgent today as before the election.  

Scottish Labour’s campaign message focused heavily on “fixing the basics”: growing the economy, supporting high streets, reducing waiting lists, improving primary care, strengthening social care and making communities safer. On the doorsteps, people were frustrated, angry and tired. They are sick of political arguments that seem disconnected from their lives. They had lost faith in politicians to change anything and, as shown by the latest polling by IPPR, ended up voting for parties they believed aligned with their values rather than ones who could fix the issues in their day to day lives.  

While Scottish Labour suffered its worst result since devolution, the SNP fell short of a majority, the opposition fragmented, and public trust in politics continues to erode. 

John Swinney now faces the realities of minority government, bleak fiscal choices and a constitutional strategy that lacks both a clear legal route and strong public demand. 

The election result may be settled, but the challenges facing Scotland are not. Scottish Labour’s task is to ensure the SNP government remains focused on delivering outcomes rather than constitutional division. We must also emphasise growing the economy, putting more money in people’s pockets, and connecting to voters through our values and national identity. 

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