Politics: is the future plural
It’s now well known that Labour’s solid lead in the polls is in large part down to the defection of left-leaning former Liberal Democrats. So does that mean the party’s loyal supporters are a rump of right-wing Tory sympathisers? The...
It’s now well known that Labour’s solid lead in the polls is in large part down to the defection of left-leaning former Liberal Democrats. So does that mean the party’s loyal supporters are a rump of right-wing Tory sympathisers? The answer is emphatically no.
New Fabian analysis of YouGov polling from the last 12 months shows that, even after two years of the coalition, the Liberal Democrats’ remaining supporters are closer to Labour than to Tory voters. The relationship between Labour and the Liberal Democrats goes far beyond a few text message exchanges between Ed Miliband and Vince Cable.
Lib Dem and Labour supporters share views on the economy and government and far more Lib Dems would consider voting Labour than Conservative.
First, consider how people identify on a left-right political spectrum. 43% of current Lib Dem supporters describe themselves as on the left of politics, compared to 53% of Labour supporters and 1% of Conservatives. By contrast just 8% of Lib Dem and 6% of Labour voters place themselves on the right of politics compared to 60% of Conservative supporters. (1)
This translates into how people view David Cameron’s politics too. 44% of Lib Dems and 52% of Labour supporters describe him as fairly or very right wing compared to 24% of Conservatives. (1)
Labour and Lib Dem supporters also have similar views on the role of government in British life, as the following table demonstrates: (2)
| Percentage sympathetic to statement… |
Lib Dem |
Lab |
Con |
| We should only fund basic services to try to keep tax as low as possible. People know how to spend their money better than the government |
27 |
22 |
51 |
| Government should do the bare minimum and stay out of people’s way. People are freer when there is less Government. |
24 |
22 |
44 |
| When the Government provides more than the basics it holds back business and stops the economy growing |
16 |
16 |
44 |
| Government does things very inefficiently. We should let private companies or charities run more of our services. |
31 |
20 |
46 |
| The UK should have lower levels of tax to provide a narrower range of services in the future that are more of a safety-net for the poor with most people paying for some services that are currently free |
17 |
14 |
34 |
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a second table comparing views on the economy tells the same story. (3) These results are politically salient as they demonstrate the divide between the views of Lib Dem and Tory voters on today’s key economic debates, including employment regulation, industrial strategy and support for the City.
|
Percentage agreeing with statement |
Lib Dem |
Lab |
Con |
| The gap between those at the top and everyone else is now too wide and is bad for ordinary people, as the very rich use their power and influence in ways that harm the majority. |
78 |
84 |
48 |
| There’s always been a gap between rich and poor, and while the most vulnerable should have a safety net, there’s not much that can or should be done about it |
17 |
14 |
42 |
| Businesses have to deal with too much red tape on workers’ employment rights. Workplace rights sound nice, but in the end mean fewer jobs and a weaker economy. Companies should have more freedom to hire and fire workers as they see fit. |
13 |
9 |
48 |
| The economy as a whole, and people like me, would benefit if government intervened more in British companies by playing a more active role in encouraging and supporting the best businesses. |
42 |
40 |
25 |
| London is a world financial centre, it makes huge profits and creates jobs. We should do nothing that harms the City |
29 |
25 |
53 |
So how does this translate into political sympathies? During the summer You Gov found that 54% of remaining Lib Dem supporters would consider voting Labour, while only 36% would consider the Conservatives (defined as a 4 out of 10 chance of voting for the party in question). (1) This finding is so striking because we are talking about current Lib Dem supporters not the defectors. This pro-Labour bias comes on top of Lib Dem deserters splitting 4-to-1 in Labour’s favour.
These new insights into the Lib Dems’ remaining supporters are important for how Labour approaches the Liberal Democrats. Today, the Fabian Society and Centre Forum hold a joint meeting, ‘Politics: is the future plural?’ to discuss these very issues. Jon Cruddas and Lord Adonis, the key figures in Labour’s policy review, will go head-to-head with Sir Menzies Campbell and Jo Swinson from the Liberal Democrats.
Labour politicians have done well to persuade so many disgruntled Lib Dem voters to switch sides since 2010. But they need to recognise that most remaining Lib Dem supporters also have left-leaning views. If the electoral maths demands it, Labour should stand ready to cooperate with a party that speaks for people who share their values and are deeply suspicious of Conservatism.
All results taken from You Gov polls in the last twelve months: (1) 22-23 July 2012, sample 1,730 GB adults (2) 4-9 April 2012, sample 2,050 GB adults (3) 27-28 November 2011, sample 1,723 GB adults