Staying the course

A year ago, Labour swept to power in Westminster. In the process, they wiped out every single Tory MP in Wales. It was a sweet victory, built on hope in response to the general feeling that the Tories had destroyed Britain. The UK had been through the disastrous minibudget of Truss, and there was a feeling amongst businesses that we had simply given up being leaders on the world stage. The one word that summed up 99 per cent of doorstep conversations was ‘change’. It was the change election.

Here in my seat in Monmouthshire, and in most of our target seats, our main opponents were most definitely the Conservatives. But one year on, the polls tell us that the fight for the Senedd in 2026 will mainly be between Labour and Reform. It is not the Tories we need to win against, as shown by the byelection in Runcorn and the English local election results; it’s the surging popularity of populists. Wales is set to become a Reform-Labour battleground.

In these circumstances, what does the Westminster Labour government need to do for Wales ahead of the looming elections?

The single most important thing for the UK government to deliver is hope. We need ‘stories not spreadsheets’, though of course hope may well come by means of economic prosperity and growth. If we can create more jobs, bring bills down and ensure people have more money to spend at the end of every month, then the job on the doorsteps will be much easier for Welsh Labour. The UK government has made an excellent start. Wales secured its highest ever settlement, £26bn, at the budget earlier this year; the UK economy is now the fastest growing economy in the G7; interest rates are down; and we have a new EU trade deal which will boost the fortunes of companies across Wales. And thanks to the government’s minimum wage increase, around 150,000 people are receiving a pay rise in Wales.

The UK government also recently delivered for Wales on our spending review asks. All Welsh Labour MPs, along with the first minister, Eluned Morgan, have been united in pushing for rail investment to reverse the Tories’ catastrophic underfunding of Welsh railways. The Burns Commission produced two fantastic proposals for north and south Wales respectively, and £300m was provided in the spending review to make sure that they happen. The planned stations will connect people on new housing estates to new jobs, reduce congestion and increase productivity and growth. I was also delighted to see that the new Plan for Communities fund will deliver the same level of funding as under the most recent Shared Prosperity Fund.

On industry, the UK government should ensure that Welsh steelmaking will directly benefit from the steel strategy. This will help counter the perception that Port Talbot steel comes second to Scunthorpe’s. Its hugely welcome that coal tip safety has been prioritised by the Labour government in Westminster; this was yet another issue that the Tories were content to let fester. More investment of over £100m was announced, further demonstrating to Welsh people that is worth having Labour administrations at both ends of the M4.

A key challenge for Labour in Wales is the sense of malaise, and mistrust of politicians, that is pushing people towards populists. This is particularly problematic because Labour has been in power in Wales, either in coalition or governing alone, for over 100 years, meaning there is no change card to be played here. The answer is to ensure that Labour policies make a tangible difference to people’s lives. NHS waiting lists have gone down for the last three months in Wales thanks to the extra investment from UK Labour and the laser focus of Welsh government on the NHS. We must continue this work and show that we can offer hope.

We must also contrast our vision of the NHS – always free at the point of delivery – with Reform’s vision of one where every pensioner will be paying thousands for their healthcare.

Welsh Labour must also ensure it selects excellent new candidates in good time. Finally, it must draw upon its enormous talent pool of activists and campaigners and the deep roots that it has established across Wales. Then, when the time comes, we need to ask the people of Wales a simple question: do you want to throw away all the progress we are making, all the values we hold dear in Wales, the birthplace of the NHS, to risk it all on Reform –a party that wants to charge you to see a doctor?

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