Stepping Up

When US defence secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO leaders that the USA was deprioritising the defence of Europe, and called on them to hike defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, his words were clear and his logic sound. If the US believes it needs to focus on the threat from China, then it has every right to ask its European allies to take up the slack, expand their defence industries and front-up the security of a post-conflict Ukraine.

But when JD Vance lauded the leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party, and when he joined Trump in humiliating and slandering President Zelensky, alarm bells rang in every European capital. Because the worst-case scenario is that the US is no longer a reliable ally – not only regarding Ukraine, but in terms of the NATO collective defence pledge on which our security depends. The shutdown of aid and intelligence to Kyiv raised the same thought in every European defence ministry: that could happen to us.

Which of these strains of Trumpism wins out is not a given, because Russia’s reaction to Ukraine’s peace offer, and the UK-led diplomatic effort to keep the US engaged, can still shape the outcome. But it is right that the Labour government has not hesitated to start rearmament, while at the same time beginning to build a coalition of willing states with a shared commitment to the stabilisation and security of Ukraine. We could be only months away from– as Keir Starmer has promised – British “troops on the ground” and “planes in the air” – a situation that poses our party with a historic challenge.

By opening the National Wealth Fund to defence, giving access to £28bn of potential loans, investments and guarantees, Rachel Reeves has provided substantial fiscal firepower. But the challenges ahead are great. Industrial strategy – a crucial concern of the government before Trump’s election, but doubly important now – has a brutally simple objective. It seeks to move workers, capital and resources out of low-value sectors and into high-value sectors like defence, advanced manufacturing and green energy. But directing an economy that is used to laissez-faire low productivity is no easy task: it will need strategic co-operation both from industry bodies and the unions. We will also need a new suite of directive organisations, ranging from the new Defence Industrial Joint Council to micro-institutions such as state-backed training centres and STEM clubs.

With an estimated 58,000 vacancies in the defence sector today, and probably many more once rearmament gets under way, it may mean fewer people working in coffee chains, fewer people delivering food or driving taxis; and fewer engineering graduates working in the City, and more actually working in engineering.

Our European allies are already mobilising their finances rapidly. While that creates export opportunities for British firms, it also demands much greater coordination. So it is vital that, as Keir Starmer holds the line for transatlantic collaboration, the UK fights for a place in every significant European defence partnership – be it over space, land vehicles or long-range missiles. There is a dawning realisation in Europe that, amid new great power rivalries, it must become a fourth chess player – or else risk serving as the board. The government should now back the idea of European strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty, and endeavour to play a leadership role in both endeavours, despite remaining outside the single market.

Politically, the process of mobilising support to rearm and deter has only just begun. No progressive voter wants to spend any more on weapons than is needed, and our party has a long attachment to multilateral nuclear disarmament. But disarmament is now off the agenda: we may even need to add ground or air-based missiles to the existing submarine based nuclear deterrent. The size of our military will also have to grow, as will the reserves.

Labour politicians at every level will need to lead from the front: most UK voters have no idea of the peril we are in if the US commitment to collective security has become fragile. And at the fringes – both on the far right and on the far left – we face political forces prepared to echo Putin’s propaganda and laud Trump’s mercurial attitude to NATO.

Image Credit: UK Government via Flickr