Vibe shift

Since my selection as a candidate for Holyrood in 2026, I have been making the trip west to spend most of my time in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. This byelection was key to Scottish Labour’s fortunes. Just as the Rutherglen byelection shifted the narrative and demonstrated that Scottish Labour could win again, Hamilton had to do the same for the upcoming Holyrood election. The stakes could not have been higher. Early on, we were written off. Pollsters, media commentators and the bookies all predicted Scottish Labour coming in third place. Anas Sarwar, Davy Russell and the rest of the Labour team simply got their heads down and got on with the job in hand, listening to voters and responding to their concerns. Conversations were longer than usual; voters were, understandably, angry and frustrated. Both Anas and Davy focused their time on these doorstep discussions rather than televised appearances. The campaign combined old-school canvassing with cutting-edge data collection. The result proved that likeability, authenticity and a well organised door-to-door campaign can still win in the era of Trump and TikTok.

After John Swinney spent weeks pushing the idea that Hamilton was a two-horse race between SNP and Reform, the result in the early hours of Friday 6 June completely changed the narrative of Scottish politics. It made clear that Scottish Labour is the only party to beat the SNP, and that with a now-unrivalled ground game, the party that can hold off an insurgent Reform. The general election, and now Hamilton, have demonstrated that a pro-UK, pro-devolution party that is interested in making the country work for the many can win elections in Scotland.

By the time the Scottish parliament elections are held in 11 months’ time, the SNP will have been in power for19 years. It has spent nearly two decades in charge of Scotland’s NHS, education system and transport. In that time, little has improved, and much has got worse. There can be no doubt that the SNP has failed on the objectives it set itself. In 2015, Nicola Sturgeon announced that closing the attainment gap would be her “defining mission” for the 2016-21 session of the Scottish parliament; the most recent exam results show the gap widening even further. In 2017, the SNP set its child poverty reduction targets for 2023, with an interim target of fewer than 18per cent of children living in relative poverty by 2023/24. Data shows that this target was missed, with 22 per cent, equivalent to 220,000 children, still living in poverty.

It is time to return to the original vision for the Scottish parliament, memorably heralded by Donald Dewar as a place “where men and women from all over Scotland will meet to work together for a future built from the first principles of social justice.” The narrative of social media, and some sections of the press, may point to a ‘political elite’ or a ‘Westminster establishment’. Yet those of us working in politics are still part of our communities and accessing the same services as everyone else. We have children in school and elderly parents needing treatment. After two decades of the SNP, we are as scunnered as the people we speak toon the doorstep. My own son was one of the kids who had their marks downgraded because of a half-baked algorithm which graded you on your postcode.

When you are out knocking on doors, the anger and frustration is very real. It is our job as candidates to communicate where the blame lies, and to articulate our vision for a better Scotland. For too long, SNP politicians has blamed their failures on Westminster, without availing themselves of the powers they have thanks to devolution. Like his predecessors, John Swinney’splaybook is to do very little whilst focusing all his attention on the performance of the Labour government in Westminster. Until recently, no-one could deny that this was a great campaigning strategy. The SNP are consistently sitting in the mid-thirties in opinion polling, and have never dipped below the 30 per cent mark since the referendum. In Hamilton, though, the SNP did get less than 30 per cent. And John Swinney campaigned on the claim that the SNP was the only party that could holdoff Reform ahead of 2026. This argument is looking increasingly shaky.

The SNP’s buck-passing is not only a failed electoral strategy. It also represents a commitment not to run the country. We will win in 2026 if we can move the narrative away from a commentary on Keir Starmer and the UK Labour party and on to what the choice is in May 2026: a third decade of the SNP, or a new generation, with new ideas and with a vision for a modern Scotland.

Image credit: barnyz via Flickr