The Final Furlong: What do the public want from the next election?

Almost four years on from Labour’s historic defeat in 2019, the party is now on the brink of power. There is an increasing expectation amongst the public that Labour will win the next election, and make the rare transition from opposition to majority government for the first time in 27 years. Opinion polls conducted over the last 12 months have increased expectations, suggesting that Labour is indeed on track to secure an overall majority. In spite of this evidence, there has been media speculation about a hung parliament and deals between political parties.

In response, the Fabian Society undertook research during summer 2023 to understand voters’ preferred election outcomes and their reactions to the prospect of a hung parliament. We particularly focused on ‘target voters’, or those who did not vote Labour in 2019 but who are considering the party at the next election. Our research suggests that, as we head into the final furlong, Labour can be cautiously optimistic about the next election. The voters the party needs to win outright are on the party’s side, ready for change and eager for a Labour majority. Journalists and observers should take note: the British public want a single party majority government and many will vote for Labour to deliver it.