The future of the left since 1884

Winning 150


Winning 150 is an ongoing series of research and articles looking at the 150 non-Labour seats where the party came closest to winning in the 2019 election. With Labour needing to gain 125 seats to have a majority of one, this is the pool of constituencies which might become Labour’s target seats.

The electoral landscape has shifted considerably since 2019, and our research charts this change with strong statistical evidence and comprehensive analysis. Our work is listed here in reverse chronological order with the newest research at the top of the page for your convenience.

Ben Cooper leads our elections work. Contact him at

Climbing the Mountain

This report identifies 150 non-Labour seats on the new boundaries which will likely make up a very high proportion of the constituencies that Labour will target at the next election.

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Breaching the Sea Wall

Not enough attention has been paid towards coastal towns. This briefing aims to change that by developing a new constituency grouping based on coastal and town geography: the ‘Sea Wall’.

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Green and Pleasant

This edited collection explores how the ‘peripheral’ geography of rural and coastal areas shapes the challenges they face and laying the groundwork for a Labour offer to voters.

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Tories lose the countryside

New polling (December 2022) shows Labour progress in the countryside. 30% of rural voters said they would vote for the party, the same proportion as would vote Conservative.

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Making Progress

A new (September 2022) Fabian Society and YouGov poll shows Labour is making some progress in persuading older voters that it can be trusted to govern the country. 

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Winning back the first Red Wall

Scotland should be a ‘key battleground’ for Labour with two dozen seats ‘within its grasp’ by targeting SNP and Green voters. Our analysis has identified how Labour can make the necessary gains.

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A Mature Approach

Fabian Society research suggests 2 million older voters who did not support Labour in 2019 would consider doing so now. These voters will be key to deciding if the party wins the next election.

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Moving the Marginals

A nationwide Fabian / YouGov poll (December 2021) indicates Labour is ahead in a group of 125 target seats it needs to win in England and Wales.

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Labour’s Rural Challenge

The 2021 local elections saw Labour underperform in rural areas, compared to the rest of the country: Labour’s share of the vote was just 23% in wards classed as ‘village or smaller’. 

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Winning 150

Examining the challenge facing the Labour party in the next election by painting a statistical picture of the 150 non-Labour seats where the party came closest to winning in the 2019 election.

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Hearts and Minds

Many former Labour supporters feel the party left them long before they left it. To win again, it needs to rebuild its connection with working-class voters.

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Another Mountain to Climb

A paper by Fabian Society general secretary Andrew Harrop asking what it will take for Labour to win a future election.

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